First Solar’s (FSLR) woes indicate that the Chinese commodity crystalline pain train continues to wreak havoc on even industry-leading differentiated PV products....However, the bigger question is what do the recent plant closures say about First Solar’s -- and for that matter, thin-film PV’s -- long-term competitive prospects? On one hand, the drop in crystalline silicon prices means that the short-term prospects for First Solar and many thin film companies on the cusp of market competitiveness have evaporated. Reduced demand from falling incentives and a crystalline silicon oversupply environment means that utilization rates for thin-film PV will fall below the already low 52 percent level for 2011. Thin film manufacturers that had their coming out party last year (we’re looking at you, Solar Frontier) will struggle to repeat early commercial success, especially as most of this year’s growth looks to happen in the de facto cloistered Chinese market.But that doesn’t mean the gig is up for thin film. First Solar’s Malaysia facility still carries the industry’s lowest commercially operating manufacturing costs. Recent efficiency announcements, including First Solar’s 17.3 percent cell and 14.4 percent module as well as Solar Frontier’s 17.8 percent CIGS cell and 13.3 percent champion module (amongst many others) indicate a rising ceiling for technology improvements, even if the records are only at the cell-level or for champion modules. Furthermore, investments in thin film haven’t stopped either; venture capital in thin film has reached $584 million in the past year, signaling continued interest (or rather, not-so-quiet desperation) in thin film, particularly CIGS technology.
